2010 Coastal Mendocino Real Estate Market Forecast
While national real estate market information can help explain larger regional trends, real estate market is a local phenomenon. Because local markets differ dramatically from larger markets, I've created local market information on the web pages to the left.
Preliminary figures for statewide annual median home prices decreased 21.1 percent in 2009, from $348,490 in 2008 to $274,960 in 2009. This decrease in prices was less however than the 37.8 percent decrease seen in 2008. The slower pace of declining prices is a sign that the statewide housing market is beginning to turn around and should continue with more positive activity in 2010. Preliminary figures for statewide annual home sales increased 23.7 percent in 2009 to 546,690 homes sold, up from 441,810 homes sold in 2008.
The Coastal Mendocino area often lags up to 18-24 months behind overall state trends and as a result, our market behaves different from the statewide market. Coastal Mendocino median home prices decreased 38.9 percent in 2009, from $489,000 in 2008 to $299,000 in 2009. Coastal Mendocino annual home sales increased 18.1 percent in 2009 to 111 homes sold, up from 94 homes sold in 2008.
What does this mean to you, the consumer?
If you're a seller, you’ve watched as the local median home price decreased significantly in 2009 and maybe you’ve noticed the resulting increase in home sales. The local median home price will continue to decrease in 2010 due to the large inventory of unsold homes on the market. If you have a home on the market and it hasn’t sold yet, price your home to sell NOW! The real estate pricing roller coaster is going to continue to head downwards. If you’re one of the many sellers thinking that perhaps you should wait until prices rebound before putting your home on the market, consider that it will be many years before home prices return to the market peak in 2007. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal entitled For Some Markets, Bubble-Era Prices Decades Away described how some markets may take two to three decades to return to where prices were at the peak of the market! How long can you afford to wait until prices start to rise again once they finally reach bottom?
If you're a buyer, arm yourself with local market knowledge and make offers accordingly. Prices will be much more attractive in 2010 than they were in 2009! Know that the bottom of the market is coming, and you don't want to wait until you've missed it and the market is heading back up. You're in the driver's seat right now! It's a BUYER'S market and this won't last forever. As I write this in early 2010, interest rates are at historic lows, at or just below 5.0%! At this point, it appears that the Federal Reserve will not be buying Mortgage Backed Securities after the current program ends on March 31, 2010. The very best time to move on a purchase is the early months of 2010. Rates are about 1% lower than they would be if the Feds weren't buying Mortgage Backed Securities. Don't wait - now's the time to buy that dream home you've always been waiting for.
To get a detailed look at our local market, take a look at the Coastal Mendocino market information I've created on the web pages to the left.